The most difficult for equities is well known, the question: When you get out and when. The more volatile the underlying security, the greater the price fluctuations. This is especially true for silver stocks.
end of 2008, these values on a 30 year low. Many investors have been angry two years later because you missed a golden opportunity: "If I only knew If you had, so I'd have ...." I heard this phrase in 2010 very often. Is there a second chance?
What about the end of January 2011?
To answer this question I use in addition to the fundamentals, the above chart, the seasonality, my stomach and with great success to the so-called "Ellie" from the Yellow forum as always reliable "counter-indicator. Yesterday, this "ELLI" the correction of gold forecast by 50%. Correct you can not hit the turning point. Immediately after his forecast, the precious metals have delivered a buy signal. The gold price has shot up from 1315 to 1340 USD and the price of silver from 26.8 to 28 USD The charts say to me. Soil formation is complete. It has generated new advancement potential. But the charts are unreliable. I prefer to think ELLI and data as the ratio of the XAU - mining index to the silver price. The lowest value I've seen as Silberbug, was the ratio of about 7.5 in the fall of 2008. At that time, many standard stocks were crashed by up to 90% and the market sentiment was at its lowest point.
XAU: Silver again on low!
Look at the above chart. Silver has pulled off since the summer of 2010, a rally and has risen from around 18 USD to 28 USD to date.
this increase have not been through the silver stocks in its entirety. Let's look at the very popular Silver Wheaton. It has usually a lever on the silver price.
From August 2011 until January 2011, silver has risen by over 50%. Silver Wheaton was in August at 20 USD and now around $ 30. It is of a lever nothing to see.
But back to XAU Ratio: silver. 2008 it stood at 7.5 according to above chart, currently at 7.15 and the long term it is at 10th
Now there are 2 scenarios in order to XAU: Silver ratio way back from 10.
first Silver falls to 20 USD and the XAU remains the same at 200 posts. My opinion: this is highly unlikely.
second Silver rises to 32 or higher, and the XAU reaches 300 points or more.
Scenario 2 is my favorite for the 1st half of 2011th Enters it, one will min with standard values such as Silver Wheaton, Pan American Silver and Hecla Mining in the coming months. 50% performance can achieve. With several junior Producers and a few hand-selected silver explorers correspondingly more.
Further, see www.diesilberseite.de
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